Western media and 2015 elections

“The most immediate threats to the country’s stability are not bullets from Islamic militants but ballots”

– Washington Post, January 6, 2015

The elections soon enough will come and go, to begin with one of our short takes. What will remain, no matter who the victors may be, are the familiar governance problems with which Nigerians have constantly wrestled. One of these nagging headaches is how to fund education in a season of sharply declining public revenue. In this context, it was pleasantly surprising to learn on my recent resumption as a Visiting Professor to the Obafemi Awolowo University, innovative funding strategies employed by university administrators to keep going in hard times. As an example, some of the most impressive buildings as well as renovations of older ones are being funded by tapping deep into the alumni network.

The Vice-Chancellor, Prof. Bamitale Omole, narrated recently how through financial engineering he procured resources to mount a most successful Nigerian Universities’ Games in 2014, when promised federal funds were not received. In the same vein, the campus has begun to wear the look of a “smart city” linked together by efficient Internet facilities. This self-help paradigm was recently adopted in the Faculty of Administration where the Dean, Prof. Taiwo Ashaolu, upgraded lecture rooms and the learning environment by raising funds from the private sector. To be sure, the model described here is not entirely novel; what is striking is its extensive adoption at the OAU which, unsurprisingly, given these initiatives, has for the third year running been rated the best university in the country by Webometrics.

Our second short take derives from a question shot at one of the politicians by Channels Television journalist, Maupe Ogun. Asked Ogun: “Do Nigerian politicians ever consider the prospects of losing (elections)?” It is a strange question to throw at anyone but such reasoning and queries are obviously warranted by the current heady and frenzied atmosphere in the run-up to the presidential and governorship elections. By all means, the politicians have a right to sound as optimistic as possible. It is another matter entirely however, when they scare or irritate us by saying or implying that heavens will fall unless they or their party wins.

It could be nicely sobering, if the politicians talk and behave as if they have considered that as in sports, one side must win and one side must lose. It is such a posture that enables the losers to politely concede defeat and congratulate their victorious opponents after the election. That is the civil and reassuring direction in which electoral competition in this country should be headed.

And now the main comment. “Ayo, are you sure that Nigeria can peacefully surmount the imminent elections without a major tremor?” That question, asked in an urgent and intimate tone, was put to me a few days ago by a respected American political scientist who qualifies to be called a friend of Nigeria. I was later to learn by reading the commentaries of American and English newspapers on the Nigerian elections for the past three or so weeks that a thick sense of foreboding pervades their analyses and predictions on the Nigerian elections. It is not surprising therefore that my American friend nervously expressed this overdrawn pessimism in the course of our conversation. It is conceivable that it was this heightening anxiety conveyed by the newspapers that drove the United States Secretary of State, John Kerry, to visit us recently to proffer some suggestions on avoiding the worst case scenarios constantly drummed up by the western media.

The Washington Post quoted in the opening section of this write-up typifies this sense of doom. Referring to the imminent elections as “a dangerous stress test”, the paper predicts that the elections will be accompanied by violence. The paper argues that Nigeria presents “a political landscape already inflamed by north-south tensions , an overly militarised political culture and pressure on the economy due to falling oil prices. Add to the mix the Boko Haram threat and the nation’s ill-prepared electoral commission , and the country has a recipe for an explosive general-election season.”

Let me comment preliminarily that similar dire predictions were made by the western media ahead of the 2011 elections. Indeed, a former US ambassador to Nigeria, Dr John Campbell, consecrated these apprehensions and predictions in a book entitled, “Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink”. As everyone knows, there were post-election skirmishes but the predicted cataclysm certainly did not happen. Despite this fact, Campbell insisted recently that the conjuncture of Boko Haram, the 2015 elections as well as growing ethnic clashes suggest that Nigeria is still dancing on the brink. Is this not afro-pessimism in search of evidence?

The Guardian of the United Kingdom on its own part, informs in a review article published on January 16 that “With two flawed main party leaders, and the ever present threat of violence from Boko Haram, Nigeria’s path is littered with landmines”. Fair enough, considering that several commentators including Atedo Peterside and this columnist have openly voiced that the presidential election boils down to a choice between the more threatening and the less threatening of candidates not minding what their respective publicists say to be contrary. The Guardian however descends into customary doomsday foretelling about the elections when it argues that irrespective of who wins the presidential election, all the scenarios are unfavourable. The paper predicates its predictions on the premise that “even if the country gets through the elections without the worst happening, a new government will find its right to rule contested by opponents charging it with fraud”. In other words, head Nigeria loses, tails it also loses.

The international news agency, Reuters, is less pessimistic in its analysis; it even predicts the electoral victory of President Goodluck Jonathan based on what it calls “The primacy of money and patronage in determining electoral outcomes in Nigeria.” However that maybe, it is interesting to note that several other newspapers had depressing if not tragic scenarios.

Why is this so? Primarily because narratives about the elections are framed in the light of the Boko Haram insurgency and the Chibok abduction saga. They are also contaminated by subsisting prejudices about Nigeria and Africa as spaces perpetually hovering on the brink of anarchic dissolution. To be sure, no one denies the threat and the risks and of course the politicians have not helped matters by their inflammatory remarks. However, as the Brazilian election of last year shows, election campaigns can be heated even divisive without leading to a breakdown. Nigerian politicians though acrimonious are smart enough not to fall into the chasm. In other words, they play the politics of brinkmanship, but as stakeholders in a system from which they all draw privileges are clever enough not to bring the roof crashing down on everyone.

What is important about the despairing predictions of the western media however is that they should be read as adversarial analysis from which the country can draw insights in order to refine its strategies and postures so that the worst case scenarios do not happen. One way of achieving this is in ensuring that the elections are fair, transparent and credible